Saturday answers whether Thursday's formula holds up when Utah gets to pick the matchups. In Edmonton the Oilers' top line won its minutes and the Mammoth won the game anyway, 4-2. With Connor McDavid on the ice at five-on-five, Edmonton out-attempted Utah 27-14, and all seven of its shots on goal from inside 25 feet came on his shifts. In the other 29 minutes, Utah out-attempted the Oilers 31-23 and scored the only goal. We went through it in our recap.
At the Delta Center, Tourigny has the last change. On Thursday Babcock chose the matchups and still got Mikhail Sergachev and MacKenzie Weegar against McDavid for most of his 20 minutes at five-on-five. Utah can now try to keep that pair on him and keep its other lines away from him, and it has more say over who Edmonton's thinner middle six has to face.
- When and where: 8:00 PM MT Saturday at the Delta Center. TV is SN, Mammoth+ and Utah16.
- Records: Utah is 6-2-0, first in the Central, on a three-game win streak and 2-0 at home. Edmonton is 5-1-1, second in the Pacific, coming off its first regulation loss.
- Series: Utah won the first of three meetings 4-2 on Thursday.
Edmonton's side of it
Babcock knows the problem. He played McDavid 25:52 on Thursday and then said of overplaying his top players, "It has to stop," per Oilers Nation. Brogan Houston of the Deseret News made the longer version of our argument: "when opponents neutralize McDavid and Draisaitl, the team struggles to score," while the Mammoth "score by committee."
What changes that is bodies. Zach Hyman missed his sixth straight game on Thursday, along with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jake Walman, and Jason Dickinson didn't play after leaving the morning skate. Oilers Nation, citing Frank Seravalli, lists Hyman first in line to return and asked whether he draws in Saturday. We couldn't confirm that he will. If he does, Edmonton gets a scorer to put somewhere other than the top line, which is exactly where it lost Thursday's game.
Oilers Nation also reports Tristan Jarry starts in goal. He's 1-0-1 with a 3.46 goals-against average and an .837 save percentage in two appearances.
The special teams gap got wider
Utah's power play is now first in the NHL at 37.5 percent after going 2-for-3 in Edmonton. The Oilers' penalty kill is 28th at 68.2 percent. On the other side, Edmonton's power play is 11th (21.7 percent) and Utah's kill is 24th (75.9 percent), but Utah killed both Oilers chances on Thursday and allowed two shots. McDavid said it "came down to special teams" after that one, and the numbers say it should again if the penalties come close to even.
The part that worries us
Utah has protected leads lately rather than extending them. Edmonton out-attempted the Mammoth 26-15 in Thursday's third period, and Toronto pushed a 5-2 game to 5-4 on Tuesday. That's partly what leading teams do. It's also how Edmonton, the NHL's top-scoring team at 4.43 goals a game, gets back into games, and Utah allows 2.63 a game, ninth.
Utah's goalie for Saturday isn't confirmed. Karel Vejmelka is 5-1-0 with a .898 save percentage and stopped 22 of 24 on Thursday. The Oilers' site said before the series that Sebastian Cossa (1-1-0, .852) would "likely" start one of the two games. Utah's lines and goalie aren't posted yet; the team's game notes and projected lines usually go up the morning of the game.
Fans already know what's at stake. One on the postgame thread wrote: "If we can come back home and sweep the home-and-home against Edmonton, then I'll feel really good about our chances to compete all year long."
Our pick
Utah 4, Edmonton 3. We expect McDavid's line to get its chances again, since last change doesn't stop a player like that. Utah should still win the rest of the ice against a lineup that's still short, and a power play at 37.5 percent against a 68.2 percent kill is the biggest edge on the card. We'd be wrong if Hyman returns and gives Edmonton a second line that can hold its own, because that takes away the minutes Utah won Thursday. We'd also be wrong if Utah spends the third period defending again and gives the Oilers enough looks to tie it.
Tusks up.
Sources: NHL.com standings, team stats, goalie stats and shift charts (our analysis), Tusk Report recap of the Oct. 15 game, Oilers Nation: The Day After, Oilers Nation injury update, Deseret News, EdmontonOilers.com preview, NHL.com recap, r/Utah_Hockey postgame thread.