Tonight answers whether Utah's power play can outscore Edmonton's top line. Each team has one thing that works better than the rest, and in Edmonton they sit directly across from each other.
The details:
- Puck drop is 7:00 PM MT Thursday at Rogers Place. TV is Utah16, Mammoth+ and SNW; radio is KSL Sports Zone (97.5 FM).
- Utah is 5-2-0, first in the Central, and has won two straight. Edmonton is 5-0-1 on a five-game win streak, and the Oilers' own site says they are the only team yet to lose in regulation.
- It's the first of three meetings, and the second half of the home-and-home is Saturday at 8:00 PM MT in Salt Lake City.
The special teams mismatch
Utah's power play is converting at 34.5 percent, second in the NHL. By our math from that rate it's 10 goals on 29 chances. Edmonton's penalty kill is 73.7 percent, 26th, which works out to 14 kills on 19 chances. That is the biggest gap on the card.
Edmonton has its own version of it. The Oilers' power play is 23.8 percent (seventh), 5 for 21, and Utah's penalty kill is 74.1 percent (25th), 20 for 27. The two penalty kills are about equally bad, so the question becomes who spends more time in the box. Utah has drawn 29 power plays in seven games, about 4.1 a night. Edmonton has been shorthanded 19 times in six, about 3.2 a night. Utah has been shorthanded 27 times, 3.9 a night.
Utah's recent record makes the point from the other direction. Against Toronto on Tuesday the Mammoth went 0-for-4 on the power play and Toronto went 2-for-5, in a game Utah led 5-2 after two periods and won 5-4. We wrote after the Columbus game that Utah's offense leans on its power play. Edmonton's kill is a good place to lean.
The top line is the other half
Edmonton scores 4.83 goals a game, tied with Colorado for the most in the NHL, and a lot of it is one line. Connor McDavid leads the league with 17 points (4 goals, 13 assists) in six games, Evan Bouchard has 14, and Leon Draisaitl has 11. Vasily Podkolzin, who has played on that line, has seven goals, tied for second in the league, and three of Edmonton's five power-play goals. After Tuesday's win in Los Angeles, Edmonton coach Mike Babcock said, "I didn't think at any time we were fantastic tonight, but McDavid and the big boys were great."
Utah allows 2.71 goals a game (ninth) and 23 shots a game, second fewest in the NHL. Edmonton averages only 25 shots a game, 24th, so a team scoring 4.83 on 25 shots is cashing in roughly one shot in five. That's a hard rate to hold, which is why we lean toward Utah. Edmonton also has the last change at home, and Oilers Nation expects Utah to try to match Anders Lee, Barrett Hayton and Kailer Yamamoto against the top line. That is a read of recent deployment, not a lineup. The same piece notes that Utah's third pair of Andrew Peeke and Dmitri Simashev plays under 15 minutes a night, which is a spot Edmonton could pick on while it has the matchup choice.
Goalies
Edmonton's Devon Levi is 4-0-0 with a 2.76 goals-against average and a .903 save percentage, and 3-0 with a 1.34 GAA and .956 over his last three games, per Oilers Nation. That includes a career-high 39 saves against the Kings.
Utah's starter isn't confirmed. Karel Vejmelka is 4-1-0 with a 2.46 GAA and has played in six games, but the Oilers' site says he is 2-6-1 with a 4.97 GAA and a .846 save percentage against Edmonton in his career. It says Sebastian Cossa, 1-1-0 with a 3.16 GAA, will "likely" start one of the two meetings. Whoever starts has to hold up against a line that scores this much.
What's projected and what isn't
As of 11:40 AM MT, Utah's morning-skate notes had not been posted to the team's preview page, so lines and goalies are projected. Daily Faceoff's Utah chart, last updated Wednesday morning, has Keller-Schmaltz-Crouse, Cooley-Trocheck-Guenther, Lee-Hayton-Yamamoto and McBain-Stenlund-But, with Michael Carcone on injured reserve (Oilers Nation calls him day-to-day). Its Edmonton chart (updated 11:32 AM MT Thursday) lists Podkolzin-McDavid-Draisaitl on the top line, with Zach Hyman on injured reserve. Oilers Nation says he is "really close" and Babcock called him day-to-day on Tuesday, so we can't say whether he plays. We couldn't find a game-day thread on r/Utah_Hockey yet.
Our pick
Utah 4, Edmonton 3. We think the penalty count decides it. Four or more power plays and the 26th-ranked kill likely gives up a goal or two, and we expect the Oilers' top line to score at least a couple regardless. We'd be wrong if Edmonton stays out of the box and Levi plays like he did in Los Angeles. Then Utah's best weapon stays on the bench, and McDavid's line gets the matchups it wants.
Tusks up.
Sources: NHL.com Utah Mammoth game preview, NHL.com Utah Mammoth week ahead, NHL.com Utah Mammoth game story vs. Toronto, EdmontonOilers.com preview, Oilers Nation: 5 things to watch, Oilers Nation pre-scout, Oilers Nation injury update, Daily Faceoff Utah and Edmonton line combinations, and NHL.com standings, team stats and club stats. Power-play and penalty-kill counts are our math from the NHL's rates.