Philadelphia scores 1.93 goals a game, the fewest in the NHL, and its first nine games are what put it there. The Flyers scored 11 goals in those nine and went 0-6-3. In the six since Oct. 17 they've scored 18. Utah is going the other way: 21 goals allowed in its first eight games, 25 in its last six, and at least three in every one of those six. Philadelphia hasn't won a game all season when it scored two or fewer. So Sunday comes down to whether Utah can keep the Flyers under three. We don't think it can, and we think Utah wins anyway.
Philadelphia's numbers are through its 5-2 loss at Washington on Oct. 28, its last game before this one. Utah's are through its 4-3 overtime win at Pittsburgh on Oct. 29.
- When and where: Sunday, 2:00 PM MT (clocks fall back that morning), at Xfinity Mobile Arena. TV is SN1, Mammoth+, Utah16 and NBCSP; radio is KSL Sports Zone (97.5 FM), per the Mammoth's week-ahead story. Full schedule and the NHL.com game center.
- Records: Utah is 9-5-0 with 18 points, second in the Central in the NHL's standings, and 5-3-0 on the road. Philadelphia is 3-8-4 with 10 points, last in the East by points percentage (the NHL's order), 2-3-3 at home, and winless in its last three games.
- Series: First of two meetings. The second is March 13 at the Delta Center.
- Trip: Game two of six on the road for Utah, which is home again Nov. 12. Philadelphia has had three days off; Utah has had two.
The 1.93 is mostly old news
The biggest change in Philadelphia is its power play. It went 2-for-26 in the first nine games and is 6-for-23 in the last six, by the NHL's game-by-game numbers. That's still only 16.3 percent for the season, 26th in the league, but it's 26 percent over those six games. Matvei Michkov has five of the eight power-play goals and nine goals overall, both team highs. Trevor Zegras leads the Flyers with 13 points.
For the Flyers, three is the number. By final score, Philadelphia is 0-7-3 when it scores two or fewer and 3-1-1 when it scores three or more. One of those wins, 3-1 over Ottawa on Oct. 17, was 2-1 until an empty-netter with 14 seconds left, so the split is a little softer than it looks. Even so, the Flyers have reached three in five of their last six, after not doing it once in their first nine.
None of this makes Philadelphia good. It hasn't won in three games, and the mood there is grim. After Wednesday's loss, captain Sean Couturier said, "At times this year, we're, you know, soft. I would say not hard on battles, and we lose battles easily," via PHLY's Charlie O'Connor, as quoted by Ryan Gilbert of Broad Street Hockey. Coach Rick Tocchet didn't argue: "I just don't think we're defending hard enough. I really don't," he said, per the same Broad Street Hockey story. The Flyers have allowed 14 goals in their last three games. The scoring trend is why we expect the Flyers to get three Sunday, and the 14 goals allowed are why we expect Utah to get more.
Utah's three-goal habit
Utah is 4-0-0 when it allows two or fewer and 5-5-0 when it allows three or more. The last time it held anyone under three was Oct. 15 at Edmonton. Since then it's given up 25 in six games, one of them into an empty net.
The kill is part of it. Utah has allowed eight power-play goals on 17 times shorthanded in its last six games, after seven on 29 in its first eight, and it sits 29th for the season at 67.4 percent. That's where Philadelphia's most improved unit meets Utah's weakest, though 15 of the 25 goals came at five-on-five anyway, by our count of the NHL play-by-play.
The other side of the sheet favors Utah. The Mammoth score 3.64 goals a game (seventh) and have scored four or more in nine of 14 games by final score. Their power play is first in the league at 34.0 percent against a Flyers kill that's 13th at 82.0 percent. Nick Schmaltz has five power-play goals and Dylan Guenther four.
Goalies and lineup
Neither team had reported a starter as of Saturday evening, and the Mammoth PR game notes for Sunday weren't posted. Karel Vejmelka is 6-4-0 with a 3.13 goals-against average and an .877 save percentage by the shots and goals the NHL lists (229 of 261; NHL.com shows .881). Sebastian Cossa is 3-1-0, 3.20 and .855 (71 of 83), and he started Thursday. Vejmelka has started 10 of 14, so our guess, with no report behind it, is Vejmelka.
Philadelphia's split is close to even. Joseph Woll has eight starts and is 1-5-2 with an .899 save percentage (222 of 247). Dan Vladar has seven and is 2-3-2 at .888 (182 of 205). Woll started Wednesday, Vladar the night before. Both Flyers goalies have a better save percentage than either of Utah's, which is the best case for Philadelphia keeping this close, though it hasn't kept the Flyers from a minus-22 goal difference.
The Flyers may get two wingers back. Travis Konecny and Owen Tippett both practiced Friday, and Tocchet didn't rule out either returning Sunday, per Thomas Williams of Broad Street Hockey. Konecny wore a non-contact jersey. Williams also reported that Noel Acciari missed practice after an injury scare in Washington. Treat all of that as projected.
Utah is without Michael Carcone (upper body, injured reserve) and John Marino (upper body, week-to-week), per the Mammoth's week-ahead story on Oct. 26. Neither dressed Thursday.
Our pick
Utah 5, Philadelphia 3. The Flyers get their three, because that's what they've scored lately and what Utah has allowed lately. Utah gets more, because a team that has given up 14 in three games, and whose coach says it isn't defending hard enough, is a bad matchup for the seventh-best offense in the league. The recap will count Philadelphia's goals and how many came on the power play.
We're wrong if Philadelphia gets to five. Utah is 3-1-0 this season when it allows four and 0-3-0 when it allows five or more, so a fourth Flyers goal doesn't sink the pick and a fifth does. The likeliest way there is a big power-play night: the Flyers are 6-for-23 lately against a kill that has stopped nine of its last 17. If Utah holds Philadelphia to two, we misread the Flyers, and Utah probably wins easily.
Tusks up.
Sources: NHL.com standings, team, club and goalie stats, game-by-game power-play and penalty-kill numbers, box scores and play-by-play. Goals by strength, empty-net goals and records by goals scored and allowed are our counts from the NHL's data. Goalie save totals are shots minus goals. NHL.com game center, Catherine Bogart, Utah Mammoth: the week ahead, Ryan Gilbert, Broad Street Hockey: Couturier calls out "soft" Flyers, Thomas Williams, Broad Street Hockey: Konecny and Tippett nearing return, our Oct. 29 recap.