Seattle beat Utah in the penalty box on Thursday. Tampa Bay isn't built to do that. The Lightning's power play is 5-for-37, 13.5 percent and 27th in the NHL, and Tampa is shorthanded only 2.70 times a game, fifth fewest in the league. So Utah's power play, first at 38.5 percent, will probably get fewer looks than usual. That leaves the part of Thursday that still bugs us: Utah controlled five-on-five in Seattle and lost those minutes on goals. Saturday answers whether the Mammoth can win a game at five-on-five when special teams don't settle it.
- Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. MT, Delta Center (game page)
- Watch: Utah16, Mammoth+, The Spot
- Utah: 7-4-0, 14 points, first in the Central on regulation wins (7 to Minnesota's 6), fourth in the West, 3-1-0 at home.
- Tampa Bay: 7-3-0, 14 points, second in the Atlantic, 5-0-0 at home and 2-3-0 on the road. Lost 6-3 in Denver on Friday night.
- Standings are as of Saturday morning. Tampa's numbers include Friday's game in Colorado.
- Last season Tampa won both meetings: 4-2 at the Delta Center on Nov. 2, 2025, and 2-0 in Tampa on Jan. 26, 2026 (schedule).
What Seattle showed, and what it didn't
Our recap put the 5-3 loss on the penalty box. Seattle went 2-for-4 on the power play, one goal on a 5-on-3 built from two minors 94 seconds apart. Our Kraken preview said four trips to the box would be too many for this kill, and Utah took four.
The season numbers don't make Utah a penalty problem, though. Utah takes 3.55 minors a game against a league average of 3.53, and it's shorthanded 3.27 times a game against 3.23, by our math from the NHL's team stats. The trouble starts once Utah is there: the kill is 24-for-36, 66.7 percent, tied for 29th.
At five-on-five Utah out-attempted Seattle 55-33 and outshot it 29-16, by our count from the NHL's play-by-play, and still lost those minutes 2-1 on goals. Philipp Grubauer stopped 29 of 30 at even strength. Over the whole night Utah outshot Seattle 36-25.
André Tourigny changed his top two lines in Seattle. Vincent Trocheck moved up with Clayton Keller and Dylan Guenther, and Logan Cooley went with Nick Schmaltz and Lawson Crouse. "(Cooley's) line scored in the third period. We'll see what we do in the next game," Tourigny said in the Mammoth's game story on NHL.com. Daily Faceoff's projection, updated Saturday at 10:44 a.m. MT, keeps both: Keller-Trocheck-Guenther and Cooley-Schmaltz-Crouse. Lines and goalies are projected; the Mammoth PR projected lines and morning-skate notes weren't out when we wrote this. Michael Carcone is on injured reserve and John Marino is day-to-day, "not considered week-to-week," per Daily Faceoff.
Tampa's five-on-five threat is Brandon Hagel
Twenty-nine of Tampa's 34 goals have come at even strength or shorthanded. Brandon Hagel has the most on the team, seven, one more than Jake Guentzel. Hagel also has six assists and a team-high 43 shots, 15 more than anyone else, and only one of the goals came on the power play. In Tampa's last five games he has three goals and five points.
Nikita Kucherov is tied with Hagel for the team lead at 13 points, nine of them assists. His next point sets a Lightning record: he has 1,137 for the franchise, tied with Steven Stamkos. Daily Faceoff's Lightning page has Kucherov and Hagel on a line with Anthony Cirelli and lists Yanni Gourde as out. Victor Hedman played 5:56 in Colorado and didn't return; Daily Faceoff lists him day-to-day with an undisclosed injury, and his status for tonight is unknown.
Tampa draws 4.68 penalties per 60 minutes, third most, so Utah's kill will still get work, against a power play with five goals all season. The bigger worry is Tampa's defense: 2.90 goals against a game, tied with Winnipeg for eighth fewest.
The net
Neither team has named a starter. Karel Vejmelka has started 8 of Utah's 11 games, so we'd expect him, though nobody has reported it. He's 5-3-0 with an .874 save percentage and a 3.04 goals-against average, and we made our case for keeping him on Friday. In Seattle he made 20 saves on 24 shots: 14 of 16 at even strength, 6 of 8 on the kill. Sebastian Cossa is 2-1-0 at .820 in four games, three of them starts.
Andrei Vasilevskiy started Friday in Denver, the first half of Tampa's first back-to-back, and stopped 18 of 23. He's 5-3-0 in eight starts, with an .884 save percentage and a 2.78 goals-against average. Dennis Hildeby started the other two and won both, at .920. The Mammoth's preview story on NHL.com says "it's likely that Hildeby will get the start," and we lean the same way: Vasilevskiy played Friday, and backups often get the second night. Nobody on Tampa's side has confirmed it.
Our pick
Utah 3, Tampa Bay 2. With fewer power plays each way, we expect fewer goals than Utah's usual 3.73 a game. Utah has the rest, home ice and probably the other team's backup. If it wins the five-on-five shots again, we think it wins the goals this time. We'd be wrong if Vasilevskiy starts the second night anyway and stops 29 of 30 at even strength the way Grubauer did. Then shot control won't be enough, and Hagel only needs one.
Tusks up.
Sources: NHL API standings, schedules, club stats and team power-play, penalty-kill and penalty stats (through Oct. 23); NHL box score and play-by-play for Utah at Seattle (five-on-five counts are our analysis of the NHL's data); NHL box score for Tampa Bay at Colorado; the Mammoth's game story on NHL.com by Catherine Bogart and preview story on NHL.com; Daily Faceoff's projected lines and injuries for Utah and Tampa Bay (Oct. 24); our Kraken recap, Kraken preview and Vejmelka post.