The Mammoth beat the Maple Leafs 5-4 on Tuesday after leading 5-2, and the postgame explanation was that Utah backed off in the third period. The shot data doesn't back that up. With both goalies in and five skaters aside, Utah outshot Toronto 12-2 in the third. The Leafs got back into the game with three goals scored with extra skaters, and Utah took the penalties that gave them those chances.
Backing off, or sitting in the box
Mikhail Sergachev, the game's first star, told NHL.com, "We were backing off a little bit, not attacking as much as we should have been." We didn't see the game, and he may be describing the stretches when Utah was killing penalties. At full strength the numbers go the other way. In the third Utah had 18 attempts to Toronto's 11, 12 shots on goal to two, and four of those 12 came from inside 25 feet. Toronto had none from that range at even strength.
Toronto had 11 shots on goal in the period. Two came at even strength. Seven came with the Leafs holding an extra skater: a power play, the 6-on-5 after a delayed Utah penalty, and five in the closing 6-on-4. The other two came while Utah was on its own power play.
The goals fit that pattern. Vincent Trocheck was called for hooking at 6:39, and John Tavares scored on the power play at 7:12. A delayed penalty went up on Utah at 10:37, Toronto pulled Anthony Stolarz for a sixth skater, and Gavin McKenna scored at 11:01, 24 seconds later. Then Dylan Guenther was called for tripping at 18:14 and the Mammoth had to kill 1:46 against a 6-on-4. The Hockey News's account on Yahoo says Guenther tripped Auston Matthews while trying to get the puck to Logan Cooley for an empty-net goal.
Mammoth coach André Tourigny made the same point to reporters, according to Sports Radio Service: "we take a penalty. Why? It's 5-2." He called the first five minutes of the third "textbook" and said there was no reason for the penalty at 5-2. We agree with Tourigny and would drop the "backing off" version. Utah played the third at full strength about as well as a team up three goals can, and the box took the rest. Guenther, who had a goal and an assist, also took three of Utah's five minors.
Fans on r/Utah_Hockey saw the other version. One wrote, "I fell into the trap of thinking the game was over at 5-2, I'm starting to think the players did too." Another said, "Didn't quite deserve that one with that third period." That's fair on feel and on the scoreboard. On the shot chart, the Mammoth had the third at even strength.
The whole night, at full strength
The second period fits too. Utah took a too-many-men penalty at 3:36, and Matthews scored on the power play at 5:16, 100 seconds later. Toronto's other second-period goal, from Jack Roslovic at 16:29, was the only one the Leafs scored at five-on-five all game, on 12 shots on goal. Utah had 21 shots on goal and four goals at five-on-five, so the real split is 4-1 at full strength, 3-0 for Toronto with extra skaters, and a shorthanded goal for Utah.
Sergachev's goal at 4:01 of the second, 25 seconds into the penalty kill, was Utah's first shorthanded goal of the season, and the team's postgame notes say he's the only defenseman in franchise history with two. It also came on a delayed Toronto penalty, with Karel Vejmelka pulled for an extra skater, which is why our five-on-five count leaves it out.
Where the other writers are right, and where they're stretching
The Leafs Nation blamed Stolarz, who gave up five goals on 28 shots and, by their count from Natural Stat Trick, saved 1.85 goals fewer than expected. Part of that holds up. Guenther's goal came from about 47 feet and MacKenzie Weegar's, the game-winner, from about 32, and Stolarz said himself he'd "probably want two or three of those goals back." But the goalie explains how Utah got to 5-2. It doesn't explain how Toronto got to 5-4, and our numbers say Utah's edge in volume was real: 21 shots on goal to 12 at five-on-five, and 43 attempts to 30. The shot quality was closer, with six inside 25 feet to three, so 4-1 at even strength flatters Utah a bit.
The Hockey News said Utah scored on "five rush goals and a short-handed marker." Utah scored five goals in total, so those numbers can't both be right, and the NHL feed doesn't tag rushes. Morgan Rielly, beaten by Daniil But on the opener, said "Obviously that's on me."
The power play went the other way. Utah was 0-for-4 with seven attempts and one shot on goal, though Sergachev said afterward, "I don't think we had a shot on goal." The NHL feed has Anders Lee's shot at 8:31 of the second. We wrote after Columbus that the Mammoth had won on three power-play goals and that even strength was closer than it looked. Tuesday was the opposite night. Utah scored nothing with the man advantage and still won the five-on-five game by three goals, which says the team can win both ways.
The penalty kill is the weak half. Utah was 3-for-5 and is 20-for-27 (74.1 percent) for the season, according to the team's postgame notes. Vejmelka stopped all five shots on goal Toronto got with Stolarz pulled, and Toronto coach Jim Hiller said "the big one at the end, the 6-on-4, was the one we really needed to bury." The Leafs didn't, and that's the only reason this reads as a win with a lesson and not a loss with a regret.
Utah is at Edmonton on Thursday and home against the Oilers on Saturday. Tourigny's own worry was that "twice we've had to kill a penalty to finish the game when we're leading." At five-on-five this team already looks fine. The box is where it needs work.
Tusks up.
Sources: NHL.com game recap, NHL.com game story (Utah Mammoth), NHL.com box score and play-by-play data (shot locations, periods, and strength splits are our analysis of the NHL's coordinates, so treat distances as approximate), the team's postgame notes, AP via Yahoo Sports, The Hockey News via Yahoo Sports, The Hockey News (Maple Leafs), The Leafs Nation, The Hockey Writers, Deseret News, Sports Radio Service, r/Utah_Hockey postgame thread.